Weather Shapes Bus Ridership—But Cost and Shelters Can Change the Equation

LTC Elizabeth Dzwonczyk from West Point’s Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering (GENE) has co-authored a comprehensive study analyzing how weather, air quality, and fare structures impact urban transit ridership.

The interdisciplinary research was conducted while Dzwonczyk was at CU Denver and analyzed nearly 44.3 million rider experiences across more than 7,200 bus stops in the Denver metro area alongside high-resolution environmental and satellite data. The findings reveal that extreme weather significantly alters commuting habits: cold conditions triggered the strongest and longest-lasting decline in bus use (dropping nearly 16% over 24 hours), rain caused sharp but short-lived drops as riders delayed trips, and hot weather led to nuanced spikes in immediate bus use as commuters sought air conditioning.

Importantly, the study demonstrated that built infrastructure and fare policy directly mediate weather impacts. Protected bus shelters mitigated heat-related deterrents, while zero-fare summer programs noticeably muted the negative effects of adverse weather on ridership. By linking microclimate data with human transit choices, the study offers actionable insights for urban planners and transit agencies seeking to build climate-resilient public transportation systems.

Read the full feature via the CU Denver News here.

Read the full paper in Environmental Research here.