The Environmental–Social Nexus of Subnational Conflict in Pakistan

Leydet, D, Medina, R, Linke, A, Brewer, S, Kelly, B

Key Words: Environment • Climate • Social • Conflict • Pakistan • Political Geography

The study, published in Weather, Climate, and Society and authored by David Leydet and researchers from the University of Utah, examines the environmental and social drivers of district-level conflict across Pakistan between 2010 and 2022. Utilizing self-organizing maps and random forest models across 160 districts alongside a targeted comparison of East Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, and Quetta, the research identifies population density, urbanization, economic standing, and above-average spring temperatures as key predictors of localized violence. Counter to conventional expectations that conflict concentrates in poorer regions, the findings demonstrate that wealthier and more urbanized districts experience higher per capita rates of conflict, particularly violent incidents. Ultimately, this exploratory framework highlights how climate variables interact with socio-economic conditions at subnational scales, offering insights for region-specific peacebuilding and risk-assessment strategies.

To cite this article: Leydet, D., Medina, R., Linke, A., Brewer, S., & Kelly, B. (2026). The Environmental–Social Nexus of Subnational Conflict in Pakistan. Weather, Climate, and Society, 18(1), 33-45. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-25-0029.1

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