Heat and mortality in a semi-arid city: A multi-scalar analysis of the impacts of temperature in Denver, Colorado
Key Words: Extreme heat • Temperature-mortality relationships • Heat wave effect • Generalized additive model • Mortality
The study, published in Urban Climate and authored by Elizabeth Dzwonczyk and researchers from the University of Colorado Denver, investigates the temperature-mortality relationship in a semi-arid urban environment over a 30-year period. Utilizing generalized additive models across citywide, census tract, and block group scales, the research demonstrates that 5-day rolling averages of daily maximum surface air temperature offer the most robust predictor of heat-related mortality. These findings identify a modest but consistent heat wave effect and provide localized predictive maps that show risk patterns diverging from conventional socioeconomic vulnerability indicators. Ultimately, this multi-scalar framework offers a replicable approach for other semi-arid metropolitan areas to design targeted, equity-driven public health interventions and neighborhood-level adaptation strategies.
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